Vermin Supreme

Hillary's Clinton and the Labor Market

Hillary Clinton has had a rough time so far. Trump has accused her husband of being a rapist and said that she's an "enabler." Berners have accused her of everything from the genocide to sticking chewing gum to the underside of the table.

In the past, I've explained why I was supporting Hillary. I've ripped on Bernie (he deserves more criticism). I've eulogized Ted Cruz. Donald Trump makes fun of himself.

But I haven't praised Hillary Clinton. She deserves more praise. And a foot rub. I'll leave the foot rub to Bill.

The Labor Market

Unemployment is at 5%, the lowest rate we have seen since the recession. Wage growth is improving but lackluster. Recently Business Insider published an interesting piece on the labor market. The number of unemployed people in the U.S. per job opening is down to pre-recession levels (about 1.5 workers per job). The average time to fill a vacancy is up to 26 days. That's the longest it has been this century. Notably the number of job openings per hire has skyrocketed.

So what to make of this? Either employers are being overly selective, or there aren't enough workers with the skills that employers want. Actually, those are two ways of looking at the same problem. There are enough un/underemployed people to file the job openings, but the job-seekers don't match the job openings. In short, there is a skills gap.

So how should we bridge the skills gap?

Hillary Clinton plans to give a tax credit to companies that employ apprentices. The tax credit will incentivize companies to create apprenticeship programs where they otherwise wouldn't. Companies will only hire apprentices for jobs where they have a need. The company hiring the apprentice has a need, it means there is a skill shortage in that area. Other companies are likely to have such a need. I.e. the skills the apprentice gains will likely be transferrable. The apprentice will contribute to bridging the skills gap.

The Plight of the Trump Supporter

This blog has spent many words demeaning and dismissing Donald Trump and his supporters. Trump is a reprehensible megalomaniac worth no sympathy, but his supporters are real people. They are numerous enough that it would be foolhardy to dismiss them all as lunatics or idiots (although some of them surely are). So let us examine the plight of the Trump electorate.

Feel free to skip to the TL;DR Summary if you like.

Economic Plight of a Trump Supporter

Much has been made of the racism and xenophobia of Trump's base, but they have real economic grievances. They are disproportionately uneducated and poor in an age of rapid globalization, technological advancement, and increasing inequality. They are also largely white and male—two classes which confer some privilege, but much less than in the past. In short, they are doing badly and wish for a time when they did better. Trump's slogan, "Make America Great Again" appeals to them on a personal level (whereas it insults those who never had such privileges).

Immigration

Donald Trump and his base are staunchly anti-immigrant. This is often attributed to racism. That a factor, but it isn't the only factor. Lower skilled individuals are likely to oppose immigration especially in high-GDP countries. Labor mobility may help the broader economy, but lower skilled people compete more directly with immigrants for jobs. Trump's anti-immigrant stance resonates with these people.

Other impacts of immigration are more positive. Immigrants consume goods and services just like those born in the U.S. This consumption boosts the economy and job growth. Immigrants keep the U.S. younger, helping it avoid the demographic cliff.

The flow of illegal immigration has declined significantly. In fact, many illegal immigrants have gone home. The cost of building Trump's wall would likely be around $20 billion with around $750 million annual maintenance costs. It wouldn't slow down illegal immigration much. It would be a nuisance locals. Trump's wall is a pointless boondoggle. If he makes good on blackmailing Mexico to pay for the wall, it will only serve to piss off our neighbor to the South.

Trump has said he'd deport all of the illegal immigrants already here. The cost of said deportation would be $114 billion. Of course, most of that cost would be in feeding and housing immigrants while giving them due-process. Trump might be able to reduce the cost, by denying immigrants due process, but I doubt the judiciary would allow that.

Trade

During the Republican primary, Donald Trump mouthed the standard party lines ("stop abortion", "lower taxes", "legalize assault weapons", etc). Trump did manage to distinguish himself in one area: Trade. Trump opposes the Trans Pacific Partnership, a trade deal negotiated between many Pacific rim nations that would lower trade barriers such as tarrifs among the signatories. The TPP is one of the few bills Barack Obama supports that has more support among Republicans than among Democrats. Trump has even threatened to end NAFTA. (Interestingly enough, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both oppose the TPP and question want to renegotiate NAFTA.)

The simplest effect of trade is that provides American consumers a greater selection of goods at lower prices. After that it gets complicated. The country gains some jobs (in export industries) and loses others (when imports replace domestic production). There is some evidence, that it may help other industries by driving down interest rates. It increases employment and income for those involved in the import/export business. Wages may be depressed beyond the industries directly affected (by affecting the supply of labor at a given skill level).

The effects of trade are complex, but we can be confident of three things:

1. Trade increases the output of the American economy-it makes us richer in the aggregate
2. There are winners and loses when trade increases
3. Lower skilled workers are more likely to lose

The majority of jobs lost are manufacturing jobs. China has been a primary beneficiary, but there are others. Here's the thing: those jobs aren't coming back-at least not all that were lost. Trade has increased employment, wages, and costs for manufacturing firms there and some production has returned to the America, but it has returned in a higher tech form. More machines, more computers, fewer workers. Technology has likely killed more manufacturing jobs than trade, but you can't ban automation as easily as imposing a tariff.

Trade deals are not necessarily a good deal across the board. There are severe problems with the TPP (most notably, its intellectual property provisions). However, Trump's claims that he will bring back manufacturing jobs is bullshit. Trump will more likely start a trade war which will hurt all countries involved.

What to do?

Trump's supporters have legitimate economic concerns that should be addressed. However, we shouldn't just deport 3.5% of the American public or enact illegal tariffs. Rather we should take advantage of the positive economic effects of both trade and immigration while helping out those at a disadvantage. Bernie Sanders has things partially right. Single payer healthcare would help (even if Bernie's plan is flawed). A layoff shouldn't mean loss of health care. Bernie is also partially correct on the education issue. However, four year college wouldn't help most of the victims of globalization and increased automation. Vocational training would help more. Most importantly, we need a more progressive tax structure. The biggest winners from globalization are wealthy people who own corporations that reap the revenues from increased trade. We need to increase tax rates and close loopholes so that the wealthy pay their fair share. That includes TV preachers.

Of course, Trump's message resonates with these people more than a balanced progressive message. Why? It's a simple message. "US vs. THEM" is easier to understand than "globalization is an unstoppable force and that we simply need to adapt". "I'm a great businessman, I've made billions of dollars, and I can fix the economy" is easier to understand than "no you're not, you under-performed financially, and anyway managing an economy is different than branding golf courses".

So how do we tailor a message that the Trump demographic can understand? Bernie Sanders has done that better than nearly anyone else Bernie has said that Wall Street has been preying on the working class for years, that the system is rigged against common people, and the wealthy and corrupt politicians keep the system rigged. Bernie leaves out the racism, hatred, and war-mongering that Trump brings. Hopefully, future candidates will adopt much of Bernie's narrative. Of course, they give us a plan where the math works.

TL;DR Summary

• Trump supporters tend to be poor and uneducated
• They are at an disadvantage in the modern job market
• They oppose immigration (partly) because they compete with immigrants for jobs
• They oppose trade because they have disproportionately lost jobs as trade has increased
• Social welfare policies can help to bring up the poor and uneducated
• Prospective leaders should adopt a populist narrative similar to those espoused by Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump

The Man Who Would Be Emperor

Donald Trump knows words. He has the best words.

Yes, Donald. I'm sure that you do. You can't shut up. Now I don't have words. Your de facto nomination has left me speechless.

Donald Trump has been panned by the political establishment ever since he declared his candidacy for President. No more. Senator Ted and Governor Kasich dropped out of the race this week. And now we have this:

.@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite and focus on defeating @HillaryClinton #NeverClinton

— Reince Priebus (@Reince) May 4, 2016

It doesn't get much more establishment than the chairman of the Republican Party.

As you well know, my loyal readers, I chose to register as a Republican because I thought my vote would mean more in the Republican primary than in the Democratic one. I chose wrong. I'll be writing in Dwight Eisenhower. I like Ike.

I'm honestly in shock. I didn't think Senator Ted would give up so easily. He might have been able to deny Trump the necessary votes to win on a first ballot at the convention. Of course, when Senator Ted dropped out, Kasich had to do the same. Kasich was drafting behind Senator Ted the way crazy motorists draft big rigs.

I have mocked Donald Trump. I hoped he'd win the nomination. He'd have no chance, I thought. Of course, the American public will see through this pompous, unqualified ass. People wouldn't vote for this blowhard. He's racist. He's elitist.

Now I just feel sick. It isn't that Trump won the nomination. Republican politicians have been cultivating credulity and innate distrust of reason and intellect among their voters for almost fifty years.

George W. Bush proved that lying to Republicans could be fun and profitable, that saying stupid things could be overlooked. But baby Bush colored within the lines. He was G.O.P. royalty. Very different situation.

Or is it?

Actually, this feels a lot like the campaign in 2000. After eight years of good Democratic rule, the Democrats nominate a weak candidate (both Democratic candidates are weak, only in different ways) to run against a clearly unorthodox Republican.

Hillary is weak. As of this writing, her unfavorability rating is 54%. Why don't people like Hillary? I suspect that sexism plays a role but can't prove it. Certainly, the right wing attacks haven't helped. Benghazi wasn't her fault. The private email server wasn't a great idea, but she wasn't the first Secretary of State to have one.

Many progressives don't like her because she isn't progressive enough. She wants to raise the minimum wage to $12/hour rather than $15 (and supports localities that want to raise it higher). She wants to improve the Affordable Care Act rather than start over with a single payer plan. (Bernie's plan is economically infeasible.)

More than anything, I believe it is the an anti-establishment tenor of this campaign that is her undoing. Her long and distinguished record in public service may be her undoing. People are mad as hell and want a revolution. Bernie's revolution will only lead to more political gridlock and a Republican President in 2020. And Trump's revolution will lead to ... who fuck knows? A huge boondoggle of a wall? Racist federal immigration policies? Nuclear armageddon?

And so I ask you all, to support whomever you like in the primary. Just vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election.

Senator Ted We Hardly Knew Ye

Today Ted Cruz suspended his campaign for President of the United States. The world is poorer for it.

Early Life and Education

Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz was born December 22nd, 1970 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. As a child of a Cuban immigrant and an American immigrant, Ted knew what it was like to be different from the time he was a small child. Ted graduated as valedictorian from Second Baptist High School in Houston Texas. In his valedictory speech Ted said:

Jesus said "judge not lest ye be judged" and we should take those words to heart. Just the other day, I heard a classmate belittling a homosexual. He was trying to explain to the poor queen that buttholes weren't for genital penetration. But I say to you, use your butthole however you want and let your neighbor use his butthole however he wants. My classmate argued with me. "But Jesus never got buttfucked." But you don't know that I replied. I asked if Jesus ate oranges. He replied that he didn't know. "The Bible never said one way or another, did it?" I replied. "And you don't know whether Jesus took the dick either."

Ted graduated cum laude from Princeton University in 1992 with a Bachelor of Arts and majors in public policy and gender studies. He then attended Law School at Harvard University, graduating magna cum laude in 1995. He interned at the ACLU and clerked for Ruth Bader Ginsburg who had this to say about Ted:

Ted is one of the kindest, most empathetic individuals I have had the pleasure to work with. He has always been ahead of his time on such important issues as gay rights, the environment, and net neutrality.

Early Career

After law school, Ted took advantage of a Fellowship from the Lambda Foundation to work as an advocate for homeless, transgender youth. He worked briefly for Bill Clinton during the impeachment proceedings. When asked about the case, Cruz had this to say:

This witch hunt is crazy. If the president needs his pipes cleaned, who are we to judge? That man is doing a fabulous job, and he's under a lot of pressure. And I hear he has a huge, delicious cock. Anyway, Hillary doesn't care. In fact, she and Monica used to take care of Bill together. They liked to play a little game called six holes, no waiting.

Ted was appointed Solicitor General of Texas in 2003, a post where he served until 2008. Cruz was the model of discretion as Solicitor General. Whereas most Solicitor Generals have acted as attack dogs for the government, Cruz chose not to argue Texas' side in cases where the state was unjust. Ted has saved many lives of death row inmates, including those of the underaged and mentally ill simply by refusing to respond to appeals. Ted even allowed a ban on dildo sales to expire saying: To be penetrated is a fundamental right right guaranteed by the dildo protection clause. Besides, who doesn't love a nice hard one in the ass?

Senator Ted

In 2012, Cruz ran for Senate. He beat then Lieutenant Governor, David Dewhurst in the Republican primary and Democrat Paul Sadler in the general election. Cruz ran on a platform of love and compassion, advocating equality for all people regardless of race, gender, or sexual preference. Cruz even called for many immigrants from dangerous Central American nations to be given special immigration status as refugees.

True to his word, Cruz continued his humanitarian mission in Congress. Cruz was one of the few senators to vote for President Obama's Affordable Care Act, saying that the act "is better than no health care reform but [that] we have to do better for our most vulnerable citizens." Cruz introduced several revolutionary pieces of legislation including:

• An increase in the federal minimum wage
• Allowing same sex marriage
• Subsidized sex toys for the handicapped
• A ban on male genital mutilation

But Ted isn't just a social justice warrior. Ted is a great human being. hen in a radical faction in Congress threatened to shutdown the government, Ted talked sense into them. House Speaker, John Boehner recently lavished praise on Senator Ted:

Without Ted, the U.S. would have lost all credibility in the world. Ted is the nicest, smartest, most genuine human that I have ever met. He used his charm and grace to talk sense into those crazy teabaggers who want the U.S. to default on its debts. We all owe Ted Cruz a debt of gratitude.

Presidential Candidate

Ted is truly out of place in a Presidential election. He has a regal bearing and quiet dignity that doesn't fit in the corruption and filth of a presidential campaign. A presidential election is a far cry from the honorable, non-contact sport of Texas electoral politics.

But Ted has kept himself above the fray. While Ben Carson and Donald Trump called each other names, Ted called for the dignity of all people. When Jeb Bush and John Kasich nearly got into a fist fight, Ted was there to break it up and offer soothing words. He promised them both backrubs if they would just "cool off." And no one knows a good back rub like Ted Cruz.

As always, Ted has called for dignity, equality, and a minimum living standard for all people. Of course, Ted Cruz is out of place or maybe just ahead of his time. Someday, all people will enjoy a living wage and a right to be respected regardless of gender identity. Someday, all children, rich or poor, English or Spanish speaking, will enjoy the right to a good education. Someday, all races will be treated equally by schools, employers, and public officials. Someday, this nation will truly know justice. On that day, I hope we can all look back at Ted Cruz and praise him as a man ahead of his time.

Disclaimer: None of this is true. Ted Cruz is a vicious bigot of the highest order. He's a scumbag who'd let a pack of wild dogs rape his own mother if it would help win an election. He has no friends not even his family.

Bernie Sanders and Democratic Socialism

I don't support Bernie Sanders for president. As I have said before, I prefer Hillary (for strategic reasons). Actually, I'm in the anybody but a Republican camp. There may be a lot of great third party, independent, or write-in candidates (I would be a good choice), but don't be naïve. Vote for the Democratic nominee.

You might be surprised to hear that I've given money to Bernie. Early in the campaign, I wanted to support the underdog candidate. I liked Bernie's Democratic Socialist platform (or at least most of it) and I wanted him to get his message out. We need national politicians calling for universal health care and Wall Street reform. Thank you, Bernie for doing so.

Many Bernie fans think the man walks on water. He doesn't. His plans sound good to the most thoughtful people, but they wouldn't work.

Of course, Bernie's plans would be D.O.A. in a Republican controlled Congress. His plans are likely to be too liberal for many Democratic Congressmen from moderate districts. But even if Bernie, could enact his proposals by fiat, they still wouldn't work.

The truly socialist thing about Mr Sanders’s admirably detailed economic plan is not its goals. It is that it is completely unworkable.

-The Economist
A vote for what?, February 13th, 2016

For example, the top marginal tax rate for the highest income earners would rise to 67%. That would discourage those earners from earning more. (Many liberals poo-poo that logic, but it's rock solid. Many of the rich would simply retire early or work less.) Furthermore, many of the rich would emigrate to other countries in order to keep their tax bills low or change investment patterns to avoid other taxes.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has concluded Bernie has highballed his revenue estimates by $3 trillion over a decade. Three trillion dollars. That puts a big dent in Bernie's plans.

Independent analysts assessments of Bernie's healthcare plan have differed. Kenneth Thorpe of Emory University, a well-respected healthcare policy researcher, has concluded that the plan over-estimates cost savings by $1.1 trillion (and that payroll taxes and income tax increases would need to double to cover the difference). Gerald Friedman, a respected economist from Umass believes that the actual cost savings would be more in line with the Bernie estimates. I would be inclined to side with Thorpe. Not because I have run the numbers, but simply because the U.S. Government is a behemoth that tends to run over budget.

It's a crying shame that the media ignores the financial accuracy of candidates proposals in favor of debates on penis size:

Bernie's plans are too Unicorns and Rainbows. I'd like to see an America that looks more like Denmark, too. In some ways, I'm more liberal than Senator Sanders. For example, I support universal healthcare and Draconian carbon taxes. I even support a universal basic income. That's right, free money for everyone. It doesn't get much more pinko than that, right? I'll post more details on these crazy ideas later...

Congress refuses to do its job working with the President to enact meaningful reforms that improved citizens lives whilst avoiding fiscal calamity. If it did, then I'd be happy to have President Sanders elected. Until then, I have to think strategically.